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ICO Analysis for May 2018

Welcome to the ICO analysis for May 2018, provided to you by Suicide Ventures analytical department. You can take a look at our previous reports on our blog.

This report covers 124 ICOs completed in May 2018 (pre-ICOs are not included). However, we have analyzed ICOs based on different phases. The results are calculated separately for each phase.

Number of ICOs per month.
Diagram 1. Number of ICOs per month.

These terms are the key metrics in our report:

  • “Soft cap” is the minimum amount required by a project.
  • “Target” is the funding goal as stated by a project’s team.
  • If a target is not stated, then we use a “hard cap”, which is the maximum amount a project hopes to achieve or the technical limit of the crowdsale.
  • The ICO market size covered in this report should not be considered the overall money flow coming into the crypto market from fiat, as there is still speculation surrounding tokens. We are simply exposing the willingness of crypto holders to participate in new projects with BTC, ETH, and fiat currencies.

What are the Success Criteria?

An ICO is considered successful if the following conditions are met:

  • The soft cap is reached.
  • More than 50% of the target or hard cap is collected.

An ICO is considered a failure if at least one of these conditions are met:

  • The soft cap is not reached.
  • Less than 50% of the target or hard cap is collected.
  • No information on the project status or funds raised is available, the official website has been deleted, and/or the official Bitcointalk thread has been cleared.

If the soft cap, target, and hard cap are not stated, our experts will analyze the project and make sure the funds raised are sufficient to implement the business idea. Thus, if a company has collected the necessary funds to implement its roadmap, we deem it a success. If not, it is considered unsuccessful.

Distribution of projects by status.
Diagram 2. Distribution of projects by status.

31% of all ICOs were completed successfully this month, recovering from last month’s drop. This breaks the downtrend started in January. The below diagram shows the dynamics of ICO success.

Dynamics of ICO success in raising funds.
Diagram 3. Dynamics of ICO success in raising funds.

ICO success, according to our criteria, closely correlates with the overall market downfall and recent revival. The interest in ICOs has begun to increase with the recent altcoins growth. If the situation remains stable, with BTC staying flat, ICOs may experience a fresh wave going forward.

What About the Market Size?

Let’s see what’s going on in the market with regards to the funds raised.

Raised byTotal FundsMedian Funds
All projects$897M$4.4M
Successful projects$672M$8.4M
Unsuccessful projects$226M$2.5M
Raised in crypto (ETH)ETH 1.32METH 0.007 M

Table 1. Funds raised (if stated)

The amount of funds collected has increased, comprising $897M this month, which is 21% more than last month, at $705M.

This month breaks the downward trend started at the beginning of 2018. We now see a very positive picture, with 21% growth, regardless of falling number of ICOs. However, only around 20% of ICOs opened and closed within this month. A lot of funds raised were due to rescheduled ICOs from previous periods.

Dynamics of the funds raised.
Diagram 4. Dynamics of the funds raised.
Dynamics of the total funds raised in correlation with the number of ICOs.
Diagram 5. Dynamics of the total funds raised in correlation with the number of ICOs.

As we stated in our Q1 2018 ICO report, the amount of funds raised in crypto is pretty stable. This month, all ICOs raised 1.32M ETH, which is comparable with previous months.

If we convert these funds to the current price of ETH ($609 as of May 5), we can see a flat picture due to the ETH drop (-26% from last month).

Total amount of crypto raised, millions ETH.
Diagram 6. Total amount of crypto raised, millions ETH.
Total funds raised in fiat and crypto.
Diagram 7. Total funds raised in fiat and crypto.

The median of the funds raised dropped, comprising $4.4M this month, compared to $5.5M in April. You can track the dynamics in the graph below.

Median funds raised in comparison with total funds, millions USD.
Diagram 8. Median funds raised in comparison with total funds, millions USD.

We always try to separate successful and unsuccessful ICOs to eliminate scams, but this month witnessed a stable drop in all types of projects. Despite the increase in funds raised, the medians are falling. This is not a bad sign: it just means that projects this month are diverse, with several above $100M. The breakdown medians can be seen in the graph below.

Median funds raised, millions USD.
Diagram 9. Median funds raised, millions USD.

How are Funds Distributed among Projects?

Each month, without exception, the top 10 ICOs account for around half of all funds raised. This month, the top 10 ICOs took 52% of the total funds raised (47% last month).

Top 10 ICOs compared to others.
Diagram 10. Top 10 ICOs compared to others.

Most projects successfully raised funds ranging between $20 and $50 million USD. According to our criteria, all successful ICOs collected 75% of the total funds this month, which is 5% more than in April. The following diagram categorizes the projects by total earnings.

Distribution of successful and unsuccessful projects by funds raised, millions USD.
Diagram 11. Distribution of successful and unsuccessful projects by funds raised, millions USD.

ICOs this month were quite realistic in their caps. This month, 40 ICOs hard-capped under $10M (36 in April), raising around $80M altogether. Over 43% of them were successful, which is quite high compared to the general success rate of 31%.

A lot of projects raised very small amounts well below their soft caps. Only 10 ICOs had a soft cap below $1M. Around 36% of all failed ICOs collected less than $1M, as compared to 48% last month.

Distribution of ICOs by funds raised (from the 85 that stated their results).
Diagram 12. Distribution of ICOs by funds raised (from the 85 that stated their results).

47% of all ICOs collected under 10% of their target or hard cap. 23% (11% last month) almost fully covered their caps, representing around 47% of the total funds raised this month (70% last month).

Distribution of projects by funds raised, as a percentage of the target or hard cap.
Diagram 13. Distribution of projects by funds raised, as a percentage of the target or hard cap.

What About Scam ICOs?

Around 40% of all projects set soft caps. Only 6% of all projects stated that their ICO results didn’t meet their soft caps. 30% of ICOs did not provide results following the sale, but this figure is much better than it was in April. Below, you can see the dynamics of this trend.

Dynamics of ICOs with no financial information.
Diagram 14. Dynamics of ICOs with no financial information.

Do We Have Any ‘Ninjas’?

Due to the recent market revival and the uncertainty around it, for the second month in a row we cannot indicate any reasonable trend in ICO duration. At the end of June, we will try to combine this data into another set of categories to find the root causes. The below graphic shows that most funds are collected two weeks after a campaign starts.

Distribution of ICO quantity by duration.
Diagram 15. Distribution of ICO quantity by duration.

The below image illustrates the total number of funds collected during each period.

Distribution of funds raised by ICO duration, millions USD.
Diagram 16. Distribution of funds raised by ICO duration, millions USD.

Conclusions:

  • The overall amount of funds raised increased from $705M in April to $897M in May.
  • The total amount of crypto raised was ETH 1.32M, compared to ETH 1.29M in April.
  • The total number of ICOs was 124, compared to 132 last month.
  • This month, there were 20 pre-ICOs, which raised around $77M.
  • 31% of ICOs were successful, compared to only 23% last month.
  • The median funds collected by all projects comprised $4.4M in May, compared to $5.5M in April.
  • 47% of all ICOs raised under 10% of their target or hard cap.
  • The top 10 projects collected 52% of all funds, compared to 47% in April.
  • 30% of ICOs did not report the amount of capital raised. Last month, it was 39%.
  • There were basically no ‘ninja’ ICOs this month. ICOs were closed on a standard two-week-plus schedule.
  • The finance sector is the most popular sector among blockchain projects. 27 ICOs were completed this month, collecting 37% of the overall funds. The “blockchain platform” category is second, with 10% of the market.
  • The Abyss completed the first DAICO, raising above $15M.

The market is reviving but still has a long tail of bad ICOs that have just started to close now, unable to do so earlier, according to the original schedules. Only around 20-30% of funds stated in this report were actually collected in May. Most ICOs were stretched over a couple of months and just concluded in May. We hope next month we will see a much clearer picture, with a linear fund distribution. We will elaborate on this in our Q2 2018 report next month.

Suicide.Ventures will continue to provide ICO analyses on a monthly basis.