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ICO Analysis for Q1 2018

We are starting a new series of quarterly reports in addition to monthly ICO analyses.

The first quarter of 2018 revealed the overall downtrend in the crypto market. Total funds have decreased heavily over the past three months.

For this report, we will apply the same success criteria as used in our monthly ICO reports. Please refer to any previous reports for details. Pre-ICOs are not included in this report, however, we will discuss the top-performing projects in greater detail below.

ICOs in 2018 already raised $3.3B

In this year 390 ICOs have already completed, raising around $3.3B. Despite the massive correction, 2018 has produced half of the total funds raised for the whole of 2017. 35% of all ICOs in 2018 were successful.

Distribution of projects by status.
Diagram 1. Distribution of projects by status.

The success rate and median funds are dropping

The diagram below shows you the dynamics of ICO success, which is in tight correlation with total funds raised per month.

Dynamics of ICO success in raising funds.
Diagram 2. Dynamics of ICO success in raising funds.

The number of ICO is stable despite the decrease in funds raised.

Dynamics of ICO quantity.
Diagram 3. Dynamics of ICO quantity.

The table below shows the information about funds raised for in Q1 2018

Table 1. Funds raised (if stated), million USD.
Raised by Total Funds Median Funds
All projects $3,281M $5.5M
Successful projects $2,836M $14.5M
Unsuccessful projects $445M $0.8M

Median funds are also decreasing month to month.

Median funds raised, millions USD.
Diagram 4. Median funds raised, millions USD.

Crypto investments are stable

The market downfall is most likely because of the price fall between ETH and USD. Even so ETH is the main cryptocurrency used for investing. To try make an evaluation of the market in solely ETH, we converted other currencies into ETH for accuracy. After this input we can see that the total amount of ETH raised is growing, or at least stable.

Total crypto raised, millions USD.
Diagram 5. Total crypto raised, millions USD.

If we keep all the variables the same and create a conversion at the current USD to ETH price it is clear that the market is stable.

Total funds raised in fiat and crypto.
Diagram 6. Total funds raised in fiat and crypto.

ICO tend using Ethereum blockchain

Almost 70% of all ICOs use Ethereum blockchain to build their products. Around a quarter create their own solutions from scratch.

Blockchain usage in ICO projects.
Diagram 7. Blockchain usage in ICO projects.

Top 10 ICOs raised above 20% of total market in Q1

It’s not surprising that a few projects take a huge portion of the total market.

Top 10 ICOs compared to others.
Diagram 8. Top 10 ICOs compared to others.

Here is a list of the best-performing ICOs

Top 10 ICOs.
Diagram 9. Top 10 ICOs.

Huge pre-ICOs have started popping up

Apart from main ICOs there are several quite successful attempts to raise funds for blockchain projects. Here is the most noticeable.

The best-performing pre-ICOs and other non-ICO projects.
Diagram 10. The best-performing pre-ICOs and other non-ICO projects.

Telegram’s TON was the most prominent case for Q1, 2018. Both rounds attracted funds from a small number of private investors, rasing $1.7B in total.

Other cases have already described in our previous reports. Please take a look.

Funds distribution among ICOs asymmetrically

In the last three months, the most of the funds collected are between $20M and $50M.

Distribution of successful and unsuccessful projects by funds raised, millions USD.
Diagram 11. Distribution of successful and unsuccessful projects by funds raised, millions USD.

The number of ICO for some fund-brackets show that ICOs tend to set unattainable hard caps.

Distribution of ICO quantity by funds raised (from the 266 ICOs that stated their results).
Diagram 12. Distribution of ICO quantity by funds raised (from the 266 ICOs that stated their results).

ICO duration strongly affects the amount of funds collected

This graphic shows that most funds are collected in the first two weeks of the campaign, which is due to ICOs setting one month durations. There are still plenty of rescheduled ICOs and the ICO success rate has heavily decreased over time.

Distribution of funds raised by ICO duration, millions USD.
Diagram 13. Distribution of funds raised by ICO duration, millions USD.

The graph below shows that after two weeks more projects becoming unsuccessful.

Distribution of ICO quantity by duration.
Diagram 14. Distribution of ICO quantity by duration.

Conclusions:

  • The overall amount of funds raised was $3,281M in Q1 2018. This was distributed between 390 ICOs.
  • Apart from the top ICO campaigns the market is driven by massive private sales and “non-ICO” fundraisers. These ‘preliminary investments’ contribute $6.3B to the market, exceeding the whole 2017.
  • 35% of all projects closed successfully in Q1.
  • 70% of ICOs are ERC20-compliant, built on the Ethereum blockchain.
  • Top 10 ICOs make up 20% of the market.
  • The majority of funds raised by projects is between $20M and $50M.
  • ICO success rate depends on the campaign duration and is heavily decreasing over time.